USD/JPY Market Analysis - July 29, 2024
This market analysis provides an in-depth review of the USD/JPY pair as of July 29, 2024. It includes detailed insights from the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts, highlighting key support and resistance levels, trend observations, and trading strategies for potential bullish and bearish scenarios.
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Daily Chart Analysis
- Trend: The USD/JPY pair has been in an overall uptrend since late 2023, marked by a rising channel. Recently, the pair broke below the channel, signaling potential bearish momentum.
- Key Levels:
- Support: 153.011 (current level), 148.000, and 140.000.
- Resistance: 155.000 and 160.000.
- Indicators:
- RSI: The RSI at 28.56 indicates that the pair is currently in the oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term reversal or consolidation before any further move.
- Observations: The pair is testing the support level at 153.011. A break below this level could see further declines towards 148.000 and 140.000. Conversely, a rebound could target the resistance levels at 155.000 and 160.000.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
- Trend: The 4-hour chart shows a descending channel indicating short-term bearish momentum.
- Key Levels:
- Support: 153.014 and 152.000.
- Resistance: 153.983 and 155.679.
- Indicators:
- RSI: The RSI at 42.30 is near the oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term bullish correction.
- Observations: The pair is consolidating within the descending channel. A break above the immediate resistance at 153.983 could lead to a move towards 155.679. A failure to break above 153.983 might see the pair retest support at 153.014 or lower at 152.000.
1-Hour Chart Analysis
- Trend: The 1-hour chart also shows a descending channel, suggesting continued short-term bearish pressure.
- Key Levels:
- Support: 153.014 and 153.000.
- Resistance: 153.983 and 155.000.
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- Indicators:
- RSI: The RSI at 46.24 indicates the pair is neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting potential for movement in either direction.
- Observations: The pair is trading near the lower boundary of the descending channel. A break above 153.983 could target 155.000, while a rejection at this level might lead to a retest of 153.014.
Summary
- Bearish Scenario: If USD/JPY breaks below the immediate support levels (153.011 on the daily and 153.014 on the lower timeframes), we could see further downside towards 148.000 and potentially lower to 140.000.
- Bullish Scenario: If the pair manages to hold above the support levels and breaks above the descending channels on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, we could see a short-term rally towards 155.000 and higher.
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Market Analysis ⇓ |
Trading Plan
- Long Position: Consider going long if the pair breaks above 153.983 with a target of 155.000 and a stop loss below 153.014.
- Short Position: Consider going short if the pair breaks below 153.011 with a target of 148.000 and a stop loss above 153.983.
This analysis should help guide your trading strategy for USD/JPY. Always remember to manage your risk appropriately and consider using stop-loss orders to protect your positions.
07/29/2024
